![]() ![]() Obviously, there will also be 34% unlucky players that miss it, but it's nothing like you stated, but can you really call a group of people that make up more than half the population "lucky?". This means that the median player WILL be acquiring at least 1 per week, over a period of 10 weeks. In addition, the cumulative probability shows that you actually have a 53% chance of getting more than 10 treatises over the period of 10 weeks. Which already looks nothing like your estimate of ~1%. What's the probability of getting exactly 10 treatises now? It's 12%. If we then expand this to 10 weeks, you now have 840 trials. That doesn't line up with what you said! That's because the probability of getting at least 1 treatise is 66%, not the probability of getting exactly 1. Just looking at the one week case, you have 84 trials with a 0.013 chance of success, and the chance of getting exactly 1 treatise is 36%. This is what's known as a binomial distribution, and there are calculators online to help you calculate this. What's actually happening is that you have 3*4*7=84 flips per week that have a 0.013 chance of getting a treatise, and each flip independently has a chance of winning. Does that mean that the chance of getting 10 or more treatises in a 10 week period is less than 1%? Of course not! Let's say over a period of 10 weeks, the probability of winning 10 flips in a row is (2/3) 10 which is slightly more than 1%. Sure, if every week you had a 2/3 chance of getting one treatise, and a 1/3 chance of getting 0 treatises, then yes, it would be highly improbable to win that coin flip over and over again. This phenomenon of converging towards the expectation as you increase your sample size is known as the law of large numbers. The probability of getting a treatise per week actually goes UP as your sample size increases, not down, because you fail to acknowledge the probability of getting more than one treatise per week. So, clearly, what I'm saying, is that it must mean that you two must be taking all my treatises. With a large pool of players, undoubtedly some people will beat the odds while others underperform against them, which ultimately average out across all players. It's not that getting treatises are statistically unlikely (exactly the opposite) it's that the rates don't really produce an EV of 1 per week. So if he's reporting that he's consistently netting at least one Treatise a week for an extended period of time (3 out of 3 chance), that's literally 50% above the statistical average, which is bonkers. Cubed (because you get three slots), that's a 96.15% chance that you get no Treatise as a dungeon reward per red key.Įven with running the dungeon 28 times per week (96.15% ^ 28), that's a 33.315% chance that no Treatise drops all week, meaning a 66.685% chance to get at least one per week, or more casually stated, a 2 out of 3 chance to get at least one treatise per week if you run IRVH 28 times. Increases your party's Critical Damage by 42.13/1000 is 1.3% chance per dungeon reward slot, which is a 98.7% chance that no Treatise drops per slot. Her steel arrows at the frontline of the battlefield inspire everyone to be courageous. Increases Arrow Trigger's ATK by 124% for 28 sec.Īrrow Trigger's gigantic steel arrows inflict more damage on a bigger prey.Īdds additional ATK equal to 20% of the target's MAX HP. ![]() When encountering the prey, she becomes the most vicious hunter of all. Inflicts 928% damage on all enemies and sends them flying. Inflicts 1944% damage on 1 enemy and casts a debuff (immune to dispel) that prohibits HP recovery for 9 sec.Īrrows shot from Titan's Molar strike all targets like a beast and blow them in the air. Her normal attacks will be 100% on target and DEF penetration will increase.Īrrow Trigger's Iron Bow penetrates the enemies and leaves permanent wounds. ![]()
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